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USA Hamlin DHL 8801758700 Italy Quintin DHL 8801758873 Italy Abdey DHL 8801759735 Japan Abbey DHL 8900693130
USA Alvy DHL 8900692695 France Dahlia DHL 8900692905 France Dallas DHL 8900693384 Japan Alwyn DHL 8900693266
Malaysia Bob UPS H8960741762 Japan Miuix FedEx 876388233099 USA Felicia EUB LK198588087CN
USA Faustina EUB LK198486750CN
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Recent developments suggest the bonanza promised by China becoming the world's largest auto market is in danger of shrinking dramatically -- or ending altogether. This could be a big blow to General Motors (GM, Fortune 500), Ford (F, Fortune 500), and Chrysler. At issue is the inevitable cooling of China's overheated economy -- but also complicated social and political problems that lie at the heart of the Chinese system. Here are just a few of the red flags:
No one can be blamed for forgetting Big Trouble in Little China, the 198auto flags,auto flag,auburn car flags,alabama car flags6 adventure-comedy flop starring Kurt Russell. But U.S. automakers may be starring in its soon-to-be panned sequel: Big Trouble in Big China, with Dan Akerson, Alan Mulally, and Sergio Marchionne in leading roles.
January auto sales in China fell sharply
LMC Automotive, the successor to J.D. Power and Associates, reports that passenger vehicle sales in China fell 23% for the first month of the year: "Although a weak market had been anticipated ... it has still come as a shock to many when solid growth has become a matter of course." That shock may include many in Detroit. GM, for instance, sells more cars in China than it does in the U.S. Sales of Buicks in China rose 2% in January, but volume for Chevrolet, a brand GM has been promoting heavily around the world, fell 16%. Ford took an even heavier beating: Its sales tumbled 42%.
Recent developments suggest the bonanza promised by China becoming the world's largest auto market is in danger of shrinking dramatically -- or ending altogether. This could be a big blow to General Motors (GM, Fortune 500), Ford (F, Fortune 500), and Chrysler. At issue is the inevitable cooling of China's overheated economy -- but also complicated social and political problems that lie at the heart of the Chinese system. Here are just a few of the red flags:
Results aren't expected to be this disturbing for the rest of the year, but the trend isn't encouraging. According to sales targets compiled from 13 manufacturers, the market is expected to grow 13.5% in 2012. That is well short of the 20.4% growth rate that was predicted by manufacturers a year ago for 2011. LMC has set an even lower target for 2012 passenger vehicles: 9.2%. "We believe the market will return to a more organic growth path in the coming years," it says. Translation: The boom years are over.
End of the government gravy train
China is sharply curbing the expansion of foreign manufacturers by removing subsidies for new construction and making it more difficult for them to receive permits to expand. GM and Ford used to receive government incentives such as breaks on import duties for plant equipment and lower taxes in exchange for building new factories. But those deals expired on Jan. 31. With growth slowing, China is trying to protect its struggling domestic automakers, said to number about 70 -- some of whom reportedly made no cars at all in 2011.
Automakers that already have a presence in China shouldn't be affected in the near future.
Analysts have long expected China to take steps to gain more control over foreign automakers but have differed on exactly how. Some saw the nation accelerating the transfer of Western technology to itself. Indeed, fears of technology transfer were the reason why GM blocked the sale of bankrupt Saab to a Chinese manufacturer. Other observers have expected China to simply nationalize some facilities or ventures. But in any event, the message it is sending is clear: We still want you here, but we don't need you as much as we used to.
Ford was late to the game, but it has been racing to catch up. The automaker is adding capacity for 2.3 million vehicles in the Asia Pacific region, including two new assembly plants, one new engine plant and the expansion of another one, and a new transmission plant -- all in China. Likewise, GM has a full plate in China -- for now. The biggest victim of this policy change is Chrysler. As one of a handful of global manufacturers who make nothing in China, the automaker now has even less of a chance of doing so.
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